(Cross-posted at The Rambling Weatherdude)

Right on cue, the tropics are creating their own fireworks with 4 systems currently under the National Hurricane Center's microscope.

Let's start with the most likely to form, shall we?

Area 1  --  Medium (50%) Chance of Development


NHC:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Both the GFDL and the CMC (Canadian Model) has 96L forming into a tropical storm and moving into Louisiana. The HWRF model has the system develop into a tropical storm and follow Alex almost to a T, making landfall in or near Brownsville, TX. The GFS and NGP models don't have the system form at all. It's a crap shoot right now, but the satellite is pretty good looking. The NHC reports that some ships and buoys around the center of 96L reported tropical storm force winds, but they can't classify it as such right now because the system doesn't have a low-level circulation yet.

Area 2 -- Low (20%) Chance of Development


Nice little low in the Gulf right over the oil spill. I don't expect much out of it. Meh.

Area 3 -- Low (20%) Chance of Development


NHC says that this disturbance is in an area slightly favorable for development. One of the models picked this up, turned it into a pretty decent storm and moved it close to the east coast before curving out, but it doesn't seem too believable this early.

Area 4 -- Low (10%) Chance of Development


This blob of bad weather is located near the Bahamas. The Hurricane Center doesn't put much stock in it, so it's not too much of a concern right now. If anything, it's just ruining some people's holiday getaway in the Bahamas. Ha! Take that you rich bastards.

thanks for the update , you are my new weatherman brother